That does not necessarily work in the interests of schools because teacher-training students are not that mobile. Many newly qualified teachers like to work near where they have trained. If a market provides the right type of teachers in the wrong place, then the market isn't working, says Mr Howson.Ms Millett says: "If there was a lack of strategy in the past, there is no lack of strategy now." Thus the training agency has given extra places to the University of East London to recruit needed ethnic minority teachers and more places in maths and science in Teesside.What else needs doing? Mary Russell, secretary of the Universities' Council for the Training of Teachers, says that unless the training agency and the inspectors make a real issue of the important job teachers do and the need to attract the best people, nothing much will change. Although ministers have now replaced that with another scheme whereby teacher training institutions may bid for money to provide similar "bribes", there was a period in the current year when no incentive scheme was in place."For four months at least there was chaos," says Mr Howson. "At a time when applications were under pressure, it was politically inept to scrap one scheme without having another to replace it."Mr Howson says there has also been a planning lacuna caused by the free- market approach, which awards places to teacher-training institutions depending on how good they are. A-level entries in maths, physics and chemistry have gone down each year for a decade by 1 per cent or so This helps to explain the shortages in certain subjects. And as the job market for graduates improves - for the signs are it is improving - potential applicants may melt away to alternative careers.To cap it all, the Government has scored an own-goal, says Mr Howson, by abolishing the bursaries for specialist training in shortage areas.
So a whole generation has grown accustomed to the idea of getting out by the age of 55.Other factors accentuate the problem. "There is a hell of a crisis out there."Since 1980 local authorities have been actively encouraging teachers to retire early as a way of making budget cuts. And that was in addition to the 10,608 taking premature retirement.The problem lies in the imbalance in the age structure of the teaching profession. Never before have England and Wales had such a small proportion of teachers under the age of 30. Almost half the teaching force is aged between 40 and 49.Many of the baby boomers who entered teaching in the Sixties will be reaching their fifties between now and the end of the century. "It could lead to a dramatic exodus in the next decade," says Nigel de Gruchy, general secretary of the National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers.
Another is the number of teachers who are quitting the profession in their fifties for reasons of stress or because they have had enough. As many as 6,075 teachers took infirmity retirement last year, a big increase on previous years. Numbers applying to train as physics teachers this autumn are 43 per cent down; applications for maths 27 per cent down; chemistry 25 per cent down; modern languages 11 per cent down; religious education 18 per cent down; and craft, design and technology 63 per cent down. But there are no problems in some areas - economics, physical education and primary teaching.Ted Wragg, professor of education at Exeter University, says it has been "screamingly obvious" for some time that the nation was facing a potential problem.
In fact, he wrote to the Department for Education about it in 1993.One of the reasons for the impending crisis is demography There will be more children in schools each year until 2004. They do not see how the numbers can possibly be reached in view of the trickle of applications for PGCE courses this year, and certainly not without compromising quality. "We're not seeing a post-Christmas pick-up," says John Howson, an expert on teachers' pay at Oxford Brookes University "We're actually seeing a decline. If we don't see an increase in the next couple of weeks, I will begin to be very worried."Latest figures show applications for specialist teacher training in subjects already suffering from shortages are down on this time last year.
Education experts are predicting a crisis in teacher recruitment between now and the end of the century as thousands of middle-aged staff retire early and new recruits prove difficult to find - which is why the teachers' pay settlement, due to be announced soon, will be pored over with unusual care for any sign that it will make teaching more attractive as a career. "But it would be folly to reduce the standards of entry to the teaching profession," says Anthea Millett, chief executive of the teacher training agency. Educationalists are incredulous. At present, roughly 20,000 teachers are trained each year, That figure is being pushed up to 30,000 Meeting it will be "challenging", the authorities admit. A staggering 50 per cent increase in the number of teacher-training places is needed by 2001, according to new targets set by the Department for Education and Employment. People are more ready to come forward and talk about what was formerly regarded as private."Students' Top 10 Problems1.